britishgameshows| Huachuang Securities: New real estate policies may be difficult to break the barbell strategy. It still needs to wait for the transfer from the recovery of the real estate chain to the expansion of domestic demand

Zhitong Finance APP learnedbritishgameshowsHuachuang Securities released a research report that it is difficult for the 517 Real Estate New Deal to break the barbell strategy of dividends + going to sea: after the turning point, the policy implementation process will be gradual and gradual. This round of real estate policy focuses on supporting the bottom. It still requires enough patience to resume the transfer of the real estate chain to the expansion of domestic demand. The barbell strategy logic has not been broken. The team believes that the valuation repair has been completed and the price performance has not improved. It maintains the view that the market is volatile during the year and recommends turning to the allocation of preferred stocks: free cash flow, reversal of difficulties, and going out to sea.

1. The essence of the barbell strategy: real estate drag is compounded by relatively weak domestic demand, and allocation of dividends, going to sea and other varieties related to weak domestic demand.

2. We believe that the turning point of this round of real estate policy has been confirmed in the past 23 years, from "housing without speculation" to the exploration stage of a new real estate development model. 24 years is the verification period for the efficacy of the New Deal, but the policy turning point to fundamental improvement needs to be gradual.

3. This round of real estate policies is focused on supporting the bottom rather than creating new growth engines; before real estate does not cause systemic risks, local governments must consider capital turnover and debt ceilings when trying new real estate models.

4. Currently, the country is still in the process of promoting the stabilization of real estate through the implementation of policies. It may take enough waiting to pass from the recovery of the real estate chain to the expansion of domestic demand.

5. The macro background of the barbell strategy has not changed. Dividends: The ability of A-shares to create free cash flow has still improved in 23 years; going to sea: In recent years, the tentacles of Chinese companies have gradually shifted from Europe and the United States to regions with relatively low costs such as Asia, Africa and Latin America.

6. The market has moved from index to preferred individual stocks: free cash flow, reversal of difficulties, and going to sea

Individual stock portfolio: high free cash flow return + low investment, high profit distribution shareholder proportion combination;

Reversal of dilemma-low-Capex + low-inventory industries: upstream resource products (precious metals, cement), automobiles (auto parts, commercial vehicles), electronics (optical optoelectronic);

Going to sea: automobiles (motorcycles, chassis and engines, body accessories), non-ferrous metals (molybdenum, etc.britishgameshowsHis overseas revenue from metals and new materials), electronics (branded consumer electronics, optical components), etc. accounted for a high and stable proportion, while improving profit margins.